* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 36 38 43 46 46 47 46 44 32 25 11 8 3 SHEAR DIR 231 224 228 233 238 247 254 265 280 294 312 332 345 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 126 128 130 131 131 132 132 132 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 500-300 MB RH 29 28 27 29 32 36 41 39 35 30 32 29 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 4 3 15 11 14 -1 -15 -10 -2 -1 -3 -4 850 MB VORT 2 5 -9 -21 -32 -50 -80 -105 -127 -138 -153 -153 -173 LAND (KM) 539 540 536 535 554 615 661 692 688 719 796 879 986 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.9 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 151.0 151.7 152.4 153.3 154.2 155.9 157.4 158.6 159.6 160.7 162.1 163.0 163.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 734 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -21. -31. -38. -41. -42. -42. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -15. -13. -10. -6. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -22. -28. -37. -45. -50. -53. -53. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -9. -12. -14. -19. -24. -32. -39. -43. -45. -46. -49. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 42.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 1.73 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)