* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 47 47 46 47 47 46 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 47 47 46 47 47 46 45 43 41 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 12 6 3 8 7 2 7 10 19 24 21 SHEAR DIR 53 67 87 94 86 7 28 69 180 184 178 171 170 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 137 138 138 138 136 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 500-300 MB RH 40 39 42 40 37 30 29 30 28 30 36 33 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 -4 -1 0 850 MB VORT 0 13 15 31 46 71 83 100 111 105 102 72 37 LAND (KM) 1822 1785 1747 1721 1696 1634 1596 1565 1531 1484 1410 1353 1296 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.4 138.7 139.0 139.2 139.8 140.2 140.5 140.8 141.2 141.8 142.3 142.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 528 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 2.90 Prob of RI= 7.3% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)