* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 46 44 42 38 34 30 25 20 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 46 44 42 38 34 30 25 20 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 17 19 18 21 21 28 20 22 14 14 SHEAR DIR 69 67 85 91 94 102 106 99 109 115 118 110 104 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 150 148 146 143 140 136 131 125 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 66 64 64 61 60 59 60 67 59 50 43 39 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 8 8 3 4 1 -2 0 850 MB VORT 58 55 53 62 64 66 64 43 39 19 34 29 49 LAND (KM) 686 694 702 713 722 666 652 655 660 686 682 688 701 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.3 110.6 110.9 111.2 112.0 112.9 113.8 114.5 115.3 116.0 116.8 117.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 523 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. -2. -8. -13. -18. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.13 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.85 Prob of RI= 6.4% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)