* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 99 96 90 80 67 52 35 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 83 62 47 38 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 20 24 25 22 27 28 28 21 24 25 39 SHEAR DIR 222 216 198 220 258 290 250 257 278 287 303 274 272 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 152 139 126 113 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.3 -48.1 -48.1 -48.4 -48.4 -49.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 11 11 7 11 7 5 1 2 0 2 0 500-300 MB RH 46 48 44 38 37 35 28 16 8 7 13 25 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 10 11 9 -8 -11 0 -11 -4 -12 -11 2 1 850 MB VORT 31 29 45 27 8 45 15 1 -72 -41 -34 49 4 LAND (KM) 41 -28 -99 -177 -256 -387 -410 -410 -409 -409 -410 -410 -409 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.3 32.0 33.2 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.9 94.3 94.4 94.5 94.4 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.4 94.5 94.5 94.4 HEAT CONTENT 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 674 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 102 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -7. -16. -26. -36. -46. -54. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -14. -13. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -39. -53. -69. -83. -93. -99.-107. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -15. -25. -38. -53. -70. -84. -94.-101.-108. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.86 Scaled RI index= 3.88 Prob of RI= 10.3% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)