* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 43 43 43 44 47 44 38 34 26 19 10 5 SHEAR DIR 226 232 235 239 241 243 247 250 250 261 271 357 41 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 128 129 132 136 137 138 139 139 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 500-300 MB RH 28 27 29 32 34 34 34 37 41 40 36 33 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 4 5 6 10 -8 1 -12 -1 12 -3 0 -9 850 MB VORT -1 -15 -27 -31 -27 -63 -79 -107 -119 -128 -127 -129 -156 LAND (KM) 463 437 426 433 461 477 478 501 545 651 742 837 892 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.6 25.1 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 152.1 152.9 153.7 154.6 155.4 157.1 159.0 160.7 162.2 163.6 164.6 165.5 165.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 778 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -20. -30. -37. -40. -41. -41. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -26. -31. -34. -35. -36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -25. -28. -32. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 41.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.61 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.46 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)