* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 36 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 38 35 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 36 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 38 35 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 6 4 2 4 0 5 12 17 23 22 31 SHEAR DIR 72 82 97 108 357 356 40 194 190 189 183 196 192 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 137 138 138 137 135 132 128 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 38 39 38 35 33 27 27 26 27 28 28 24 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 1 12 850 MB VORT 8 11 21 33 51 60 83 107 110 96 78 59 37 LAND (KM) 1799 1763 1727 1696 1665 1624 1583 1542 1508 1450 1379 1311 1256 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.2 138.6 138.9 139.2 139.5 139.9 140.3 140.7 141.0 141.5 142.1 142.6 143.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 523 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 2.83 Prob of RI= 6.1% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)