* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * RITA 09/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 74 68 63 56 43 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 60 46 37 33 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 24 27 30 27 19 30 31 22 33 33 48 43 SHEAR DIR 221 217 232 268 290 269 255 260 276 284 278 265 276 SST (C) 28.8 27.8 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.6 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 139 125 119 114 110 107 108 110 110 107 108 110 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -47.9 -47.9 -48.1 -48.2 -48.5 -49.5 -49.7 -50.5 -50.6 -51.2 -51.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 10 7 5 12 2 4 0 3 0 1 0 500-300 MB RH 44 44 44 40 38 34 23 11 8 13 28 25 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 1 0 -1 0 -9 -10 -6 -12 -10 6 7 3 850 MB VORT 4 28 15 -1 38 24 33 -32 -47 -35 64 2 -32 LAND (KM) -87 -178 -269 -323 -377 -426 -478 -467 -435 -435 -478 -467 -435 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.3 32.1 32.6 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.0 33.7 33.7 34.1 34.0 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.5 94.7 94.6 94.5 93.9 93.6 93.6 93.8 93.8 93.6 93.6 93.8 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 755 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 104 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -30. -37. -42. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -29. -42. -54. -65. -75. -80. -85. -92. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -17. -22. -29. -42. -54. -65. -75. -80. -85. -92. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 45.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.17 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 3.11 Prob of RI= 3.6% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)