* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 48 49 49 47 45 40 33 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 48 49 49 47 45 40 33 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 23 25 30 38 23 20 12 8 22 25 22 SHEAR DIR 212 206 235 247 249 251 276 309 326 301 244 259 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.2 24.1 23.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 127 120 115 110 106 107 109 112 104 102 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 4 3 4 5 4 4 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 58 54 56 56 56 49 46 47 44 44 50 50 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 1 5 9 16 36 20 1 -18 -15 1 -5 4 850 MB VORT 106 102 106 97 96 70 30 -8 -60 -71 -55 -60 -63 LAND (KM) 1312 1438 1455 1419 1390 1398 1370 1291 1180 955 760 879 1163 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.4 31.3 32.0 32.6 33.3 33.8 34.6 35.8 38.1 40.4 41.9 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 60.4 59.5 58.6 57.7 55.9 55.1 55.0 54.7 53.3 49.4 44.3 39.7 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 16. 11. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 10. 3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.98 Scaled RI index= 3.75 Prob of RI= 8.7% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)