* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 42 42 41 45 47 48 47 45 41 26 19 7 5 SHEAR DIR 231 239 239 238 241 237 248 250 258 263 297 328 21 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 130 131 135 137 139 141 142 143 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 25 27 29 29 30 35 40 48 52 49 45 36 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 13 4 2 -15 2 -2 8 9 10 0 -2 -5 850 MB VORT -19 -42 -56 -57 -74 -96 -112 -125 -108 -103 -121 -130 -141 LAND (KM) 378 332 303 298 265 236 287 428 585 738 866 973 1037 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.4 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.2 155.1 156.1 157.0 158.9 160.9 162.8 164.6 166.1 167.3 168.1 168.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 802 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -32. -38. -41. -41. -41. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -21. -24. -26. -26. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -7. -13. -16. -18. -19. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 43.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.48 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)