* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 42 39 36 32 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 42 39 36 32 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 6 2 4 2 1 6 9 18 25 27 25 SHEAR DIR 75 81 94 55 23 14 328 196 199 184 191 189 191 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 137 138 138 137 133 127 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 42 41 37 34 32 25 29 29 31 32 34 29 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 -1 8 10 850 MB VORT 18 17 29 40 37 35 55 66 63 46 27 -10 -26 LAND (KM) 1809 1778 1747 1711 1675 1624 1575 1535 1487 1423 1327 1267 1219 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.5 17.4 17.8 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 138.4 138.7 139.1 139.4 139.9 140.4 140.8 141.2 141.7 142.4 142.9 143.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -14 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 3.02 Prob of RI= 9.5% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)