* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 40 37 34 30 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 41 40 37 34 30 26 22 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 22 19 17 22 21 24 19 19 15 15 11 SHEAR DIR 76 76 85 93 95 88 95 107 119 125 115 106 96 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 148 145 140 132 126 123 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 64 59 59 57 59 61 65 58 50 39 33 31 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 850 MB VORT 59 59 63 58 57 60 36 29 10 15 5 24 18 LAND (KM) 690 687 684 666 639 582 542 546 572 606 686 777 887 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.4 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.8 110.9 111.2 111.4 112.0 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.2 117.1 118.1 119.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -28. -32. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.55 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)