* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * RITA 09/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 42 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 43 36 32 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 27 31 27 22 20 27 28 26 32 37 44 45 SHEAR DIR 227 237 267 287 294 268 261 277 277 293 285 286 289 SST (C) 27.4 26.2 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.9 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.1 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 121 112 110 108 110 110 112 114 114 111 112 114 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.6 -49.0 -48.9 -48.8 -49.5 -50.2 -50.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -53.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 5 9 5 4 1 2 0 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 51 47 47 43 39 28 19 14 22 30 28 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -12 -18 -1 -12 -2 0 -18 850 MB VORT 7 5 -17 10 31 2 23 -46 -10 -25 54 4 -16 LAND (KM) -206 -304 -402 -456 -482 -467 -472 -455 -445 -432 -466 -455 -443 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.5 33.4 33.9 34.4 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 93.9 93.8 93.0 92.1 91.2 90.9 90.1 89.1 89.0 90.1 90.0 89.0 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 717 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 108 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. PERSISTENCE -13. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -33. -30. -22. -13. -5. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -13. -22. -28. -33. -39. -46. -53. -56. -55. -51. -49. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -13. -22. -28. -33. -39. -46. -53. -56. -55. -51. -49. -52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -50.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.23 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 61.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.32 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.96 Scaled RI index= 3.22 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)