* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 23 19 16 16 17 18 16 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 23 19 16 16 17 18 16 SHEAR (KTS) 42 40 45 47 48 53 52 40 20 16 13 3 9 SHEAR DIR 239 240 239 239 236 237 241 237 266 297 338 300 259 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 135 137 139 142 145 148 150 149 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 8 500-300 MB RH 25 26 28 30 31 38 52 64 64 61 60 62 66 MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 7 12 3 2 0 -14 21 10 9 -5 0 0 850 MB VORT -34 -47 -56 -71 -86 -102 -97 -79 -52 -36 -46 -52 -59 LAND (KM) 341 273 244 193 161 219 430 692 962 1205 1405 1566 1679 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.4 26.0 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 153.8 155.0 156.2 157.4 158.6 161.0 163.4 166.1 168.8 171.2 173.1 174.6 175.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 755 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -30. -34. -35. -34. -35. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 44.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.49 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)