* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 67 67 66 64 62 59 55 50 44 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 67 67 66 64 62 59 55 50 44 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 0 3 5 4 4 10 9 16 18 22 22 SHEAR DIR 80 93 300 1 354 333 254 228 223 215 211 205 214 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 138 138 137 135 132 129 126 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 36 34 30 29 26 25 24 26 30 30 24 17 13 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 7 6 6 850 MB VORT 21 36 44 43 40 55 85 96 90 81 69 52 22 LAND (KM) 1721 1679 1638 1605 1572 1487 1412 1351 1311 1244 1152 1047 947 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.3 139.7 140.1 140.4 141.3 142.0 142.5 142.8 143.3 144.0 144.9 145.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.08 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.15 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 3.25 Prob of RI= 13.7% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)