* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 56 54 50 45 40 34 30 25 21 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 56 54 50 45 40 34 30 25 21 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 17 16 16 16 15 18 15 15 12 8 6 SHEAR DIR 66 73 84 98 92 100 97 112 119 129 111 104 101 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 149 146 140 135 129 125 120 119 121 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 58 57 57 58 58 59 57 51 40 36 29 27 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 -1 0 850 MB VORT 49 55 50 43 53 45 37 14 12 4 10 7 15 LAND (KM) 694 692 667 630 596 540 553 596 606 634 678 825 1025 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 20.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.5 111.8 112.8 114.1 115.1 115.8 116.5 117.4 118.7 120.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. -1. -8. -15. -21. -26. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -30. -34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.95 Prob of RI= 8.2% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)