* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * RITA 09/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 27 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 29 26 24 23 22 31 27 30 26 35 44 45 SHEAR DIR 250 271 292 293 281 252 254 285 288 300 278 263 275 SST (C) 26.2 25.2 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.6 25.7 25.2 25.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 112 105 104 104 108 109 112 115 116 112 113 115 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -49.0 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -50.1 -50.7 -51.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 5 9 8 2 3 0 3 0 2 0 0 500-300 MB RH 47 47 47 43 43 33 19 12 10 21 33 19 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 0 4 -3 -15 1 -10 -12 -4 -10 -6 20 -3 850 MB VORT 7 -13 20 35 38 37 -1 -43 -62 -31 48 53 -3 LAND (KM) -305 -413 -522 -559 -571 -503 -519 -475 -413 -402 -474 -465 -410 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.5 34.5 34.9 35.2 34.9 35.2 34.9 34.3 34.2 34.9 34.8 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 93.8 93.5 92.9 92.3 90.7 89.5 89.0 89.1 89.1 88.9 89.0 89.0 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 722 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 84 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 14. 10. PERSISTENCE -8. -14. -18. -22. -26. -26. -25. -24. -17. -10. -4. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -16. -20. -24. -27. -32. -35. -33. -28. -27. -32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -14. -16. -20. -24. -27. -32. -35. -33. -28. -27. -32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -30.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 24.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.08 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.43 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 2.11 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)