* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 46 46 47 48 49 44 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 46 46 47 48 49 44 36 SHEAR (KTS) 29 34 41 39 34 23 16 13 1 22 41 44 43 SHEAR DIR 232 239 237 249 258 281 328 37 141 240 260 272 297 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 23.7 18.7 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 113 112 111 112 114 115 115 116 101 80 77 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.9 -53.8 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -53.8 -55.6 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 4 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 53 56 53 46 42 37 39 36 33 43 46 50 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 18 14 14 20 19 5 -16 -12 -1 10 14 4 -9 850 MB VORT 117 108 101 79 57 29 -3 -30 -27 20 -2 -66 -120 LAND (KM) 1301 1281 1267 1289 1307 1329 1287 1204 1021 803 622 374 468 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.0 34.0 33.6 33.6 34.0 35.6 38.3 41.2 43.5 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 58.2 57.4 57.0 56.5 56.9 57.8 58.8 59.4 58.3 55.6 51.6 47.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 514 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 95 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 18. 20. 22. 22. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 12. 17. 19. 18. 19. 21. 20. 15. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. 19. 14. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 83.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.14 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 2.05 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)