* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 23 24 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 22 23 24 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 39 46 48 50 52 52 39 23 16 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 238 242 241 241 248 245 251 242 251 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 130 132 135 137 138 139 140 140 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 23 24 27 29 31 36 51 56 54 52 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -10 -11 -1 -6 8 32 3 -29 -8 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -52 -58 -72 -78 -87 -98 -103 -99 -92 -102 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 321 294 272 247 273 390 506 601 689 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.6 155.5 156.4 157.5 158.5 160.2 161.6 162.8 163.6 164.3 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 772 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -16. -23. -27. -33. -38. -43. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -17. -21. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -8. -13. -21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 47.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.49 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)