* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 64 65 63 61 57 52 48 43 39 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 64 65 63 61 57 52 48 43 39 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 4 6 2 2 7 10 15 19 20 21 21 SHEAR DIR 43 19 19 3 332 304 216 258 250 250 253 249 236 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 137 138 139 136 130 124 122 122 123 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 34 31 29 27 24 26 28 29 27 27 28 20 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -1 3 3 850 MB VORT 31 33 29 26 19 36 52 75 76 67 58 41 44 LAND (KM) 1674 1656 1638 1622 1606 1558 1446 1340 1252 1167 1069 911 701 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.8 16.1 16.9 18.0 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.3 139.5 139.7 139.9 140.1 140.6 141.6 142.4 143.0 143.7 144.6 146.1 148.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -17. -21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.38 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 3.56 Prob of RI= 19.4% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)