* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 52 50 46 41 36 32 28 23 19 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 52 50 46 41 36 32 28 23 19 SHEAR (KTS) 21 16 15 15 17 13 21 18 19 13 12 9 9 SHEAR DIR 69 81 97 98 107 90 105 120 129 139 130 126 135 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 148 144 140 135 129 124 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 58 58 59 59 58 57 54 46 40 36 28 25 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 -1 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 54 46 40 49 50 34 20 5 11 -7 6 2 20 LAND (KM) 681 669 634 596 562 545 561 591 612 686 800 947 1087 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.4 20.2 19.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.6 112.0 113.2 114.2 115.0 115.9 117.0 118.3 119.6 120.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 596 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -32. -36. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.02 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 2.66 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)