* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 66 64 59 53 47 43 38 33 28 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 66 64 59 53 47 43 38 33 28 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 7 3 2 7 16 19 23 24 24 26 30 SHEAR DIR 344 351 4 343 285 230 247 266 254 242 230 235 231 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 136 137 136 130 126 122 121 122 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 500-300 MB RH 32 30 26 23 24 22 22 23 28 31 24 17 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 14 12 7 0 850 MB VORT 30 28 17 16 28 40 60 64 61 41 38 19 12 LAND (KM) 1650 1632 1615 1597 1579 1491 1392 1302 1202 1069 900 714 526 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 139.7 139.9 140.1 140.3 141.1 141.9 142.6 143.4 144.6 146.2 148.0 149.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 673 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -28. -33. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -22. -27. -32. -37. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.05 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.27 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 3.23 Prob of RI= 13.4% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)