* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 35 34 32 29 27 25 24 23 20 17 V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 35 34 32 29 27 25 24 23 20 17 SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 17 20 14 14 15 13 19 12 6 6 3 SHEAR DIR 75 84 86 103 115 94 115 106 123 127 127 109 205 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 147 146 140 131 126 125 123 118 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 52 54 53 54 56 48 41 37 36 31 26 22 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 63 50 52 44 28 16 -4 -4 -8 -3 1 -9 19 LAND (KM) 647 606 568 546 531 539 540 582 650 746 865 986 1097 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.9 20.8 20.9 20.5 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.6 111.9 112.4 112.8 114.1 115.3 116.1 116.6 117.6 119.1 120.3 121.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 627 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 78 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -25. -28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 1.62 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)