* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 61 58 52 48 43 40 35 30 26 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 61 58 52 48 43 40 35 30 26 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 3 2 4 12 16 18 21 21 28 27 31 SHEAR DIR 357 1 348 289 258 229 272 253 233 232 231 218 226 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 136 136 136 132 129 125 123 123 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 32 29 26 25 24 21 25 31 35 30 20 16 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 6 10 11 0 -7 850 MB VORT 28 22 25 34 42 43 54 49 54 45 29 19 1 LAND (KM) 1640 1617 1594 1565 1535 1463 1362 1231 1117 1000 880 691 457 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.5 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 139.6 139.9 140.1 140.4 140.7 141.4 142.3 143.4 144.3 145.3 146.4 148.2 150.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 690 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -30. -35. -39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -17. -22. -25. -30. -35. -39. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.24 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 3.18 Prob of RI= 12.4% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)