* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 35 32 28 24 21 19 17 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 35 32 28 24 21 19 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 20 14 11 16 13 16 13 10 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 83 88 103 115 103 104 117 113 134 130 104 161 244 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 144 137 129 124 121 119 117 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 55 53 54 56 51 44 41 36 32 27 24 20 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 51 53 44 28 15 9 -13 -10 -21 0 -18 4 4 LAND (KM) 607 576 548 526 511 532 534 580 647 740 877 993 1099 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.4 21.0 21.1 20.9 20.7 20.4 20.2 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.8 113.2 114.4 115.5 116.3 117.0 118.0 119.4 120.6 121.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 547 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 52 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. -31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 37.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.34 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)