* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 63 59 56 54 49 45 40 35 31 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 63 59 56 54 49 45 40 35 31 SHEAR (KTS) 7 2 2 3 6 9 7 9 18 23 26 28 28 SHEAR DIR 21 37 238 236 214 254 292 230 249 242 248 233 230 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 140 139 136 132 126 124 125 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 27 27 24 19 18 20 27 30 28 24 17 15 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 1 1 2 -8 -2 2 1 9 5 -9 850 MB VORT 17 22 22 23 33 36 27 28 23 25 26 27 22 LAND (KM) 1647 1628 1609 1574 1538 1433 1315 1199 1069 927 744 566 386 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.5 17.8 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 139.7 140.0 140.2 140.6 140.9 141.9 143.0 143.9 144.8 146.0 147.7 149.4 151.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 631 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -16. -20. -26. -30. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 3.20 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)