* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 43 40 37 32 27 23 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 43 40 37 32 27 23 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 13 11 12 13 8 11 11 8 7 9 2 SHEAR DIR 79 100 109 104 92 115 125 137 136 162 175 236 210 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.2 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 143 141 132 124 119 117 114 107 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 56 55 56 52 50 44 39 34 26 24 20 18 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 3 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 850 MB VORT 45 45 30 15 17 -2 -5 -16 -10 4 -3 4 4 LAND (KM) 582 556 536 524 523 533 527 603 707 825 898 1026 1198 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.7 21.4 21.4 21.2 21.1 21.5 21.2 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.5 112.9 113.4 113.9 115.0 115.9 116.9 118.0 119.3 120.6 122.1 123.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 570 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.22 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.02 Scaled RI index= 2.46 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)