* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 60 57 54 50 46 42 38 33 30 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 60 57 54 50 46 42 38 33 30 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 4 6 11 11 12 18 19 26 27 26 22 SHEAR DIR 347 294 238 238 231 271 271 254 252 259 256 260 263 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 141 140 138 132 128 127 125 125 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 26 25 22 21 19 20 27 26 17 14 16 18 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -10 -3 0 3 12 9 0 850 MB VORT 19 23 20 28 31 31 38 41 22 17 12 26 30 LAND (KM) 1633 1608 1582 1537 1491 1379 1239 1092 932 782 659 505 323 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.2 140.5 141.0 141.4 142.4 143.5 144.7 146.1 147.4 148.5 150.0 151.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -23. -28. -33. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -32. -35. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 2.94 Prob of RI= 8.2% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)