* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 39 35 30 26 22 18 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 39 35 30 26 22 18 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 9 10 12 8 7 7 10 7 8 2 6 SHEAR DIR 89 105 108 95 101 118 137 127 131 130 165 174 144 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.0 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 139 136 126 118 115 113 111 108 107 106 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 4 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 500-300 MB RH 49 50 53 50 46 43 33 28 22 20 17 16 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 49 38 24 22 11 -5 -11 -10 13 -3 10 6 14 LAND (KM) 568 556 553 559 562 560 619 696 796 910 1045 1176 1290 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.3 21.0 21.4 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.3 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.9 117.1 118.1 119.1 120.3 121.9 123.4 124.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 519 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 2.35 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)