* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 53 49 46 44 41 38 35 30 26 V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 53 49 46 44 41 38 35 30 26 SHEAR (KTS) 0 4 5 9 10 10 7 13 20 26 31 27 28 SHEAR DIR 197 220 232 221 234 282 261 249 245 258 256 255 251 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 140 137 132 129 126 125 125 126 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 24 22 19 20 19 26 32 26 15 11 14 18 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 1 -5 -1 -1 0 4 10 0 9 850 MB VORT 17 18 15 11 17 14 31 18 10 11 26 29 20 LAND (KM) 1627 1595 1563 1514 1465 1335 1192 1034 889 749 617 457 324 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.5 140.8 141.3 141.7 142.8 144.0 145.3 146.5 147.7 148.9 150.5 152.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 205/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 633 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -48 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -28. -32. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -35. -39. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.27 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.6% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)