* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 35 33 29 25 22 20 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 35 33 29 25 22 20 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 14 16 13 7 10 10 10 7 7 4 12 SHEAR DIR 85 81 88 101 118 135 120 100 129 141 213 178 215 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 136 131 123 120 118 115 114 114 113 111 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 53 52 51 48 45 38 33 28 26 22 22 18 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 0 3 1 0 -2 850 MB VORT 47 25 24 15 6 -5 -17 7 5 -1 18 3 18 LAND (KM) 537 538 547 552 534 572 648 705 773 878 1014 1125 1208 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.1 20.8 20.3 20.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.2 116.3 117.2 117.9 118.7 119.7 120.9 122.2 123.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.14 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.24 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 2.01 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)