* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 37 47 58 67 72 76 76 75 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 37 39 52 61 52 46 41 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 11 5 4 11 12 18 21 26 25 24 25 SHEAR DIR 94 121 159 186 195 214 291 274 291 284 302 292 307 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 57 56 59 58 60 58 62 63 66 57 55 55 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 2 8 6 11 0 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT -1 12 20 6 -14 -26 -30 -13 -13 0 5 19 0 LAND (KM) 247 283 263 204 128 -21 106 72 -30 1 0 11 75 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 18.2 19.6 20.9 22.0 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.9 73.2 74.4 75.6 77.4 78.7 79.5 79.9 79.9 80.5 81.5 83.0 HEAT CONTENT 120 115 117 134 145 9999 133 130 9999 130 105 96 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 479 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 28. 36. 41. 45. 47. 50. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 17. 27. 38. 47. 52. 56. 56. 55. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 5.26 Prob of RI= 45.3% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)