* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 51 49 45 41 38 34 31 28 25 21 V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 51 49 45 41 38 34 31 28 25 21 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 4 6 9 12 17 18 29 29 32 31 28 SHEAR DIR 274 267 264 248 278 285 269 253 254 254 256 248 250 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 136 135 129 125 123 122 124 124 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 23 20 20 20 20 28 28 24 16 14 15 22 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 0 0 -6 -6 -6 11 -8 9 9 17 850 MB VORT 25 19 12 18 15 22 36 29 11 11 29 22 0 LAND (KM) 1565 1525 1485 1425 1365 1209 1020 863 715 565 404 280 202 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.1 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.3 141.7 142.2 142.7 143.9 145.4 146.7 148.0 149.4 151.0 152.5 154.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 648 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. -29. -32. -35. -39. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 2.37 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)