* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 32 29 24 21 20 20 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 32 29 24 21 20 20 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 18 15 10 10 12 15 6 7 2 8 6 SHEAR DIR 77 86 97 113 117 105 101 120 103 145 208 161 207 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 130 125 119 115 113 110 107 107 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 500-300 MB RH 53 48 45 46 44 33 29 24 21 19 18 17 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 0 2 1 -1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 41 36 27 16 1 -7 -4 17 8 20 10 9 18 LAND (KM) 568 575 571 565 567 632 728 841 940 1046 1134 1227 1314 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.0 20.7 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.0 117.0 118.1 119.2 120.2 121.2 122.2 123.2 124.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -18. -22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.01 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 2.39 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)