* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 33 39 50 60 69 74 78 79 79 79 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 33 39 50 53 61 67 71 58 55 55 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 4 3 0 12 12 17 17 24 21 23 18 SHEAR DIR 72 112 8 29 170 257 301 283 284 283 289 287 300 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 12 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 55 56 58 58 56 57 63 60 59 53 56 52 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 8 2 16 13 -2 850 MB VORT 4 11 8 -9 -24 -21 -27 -25 -2 5 12 21 31 LAND (KM) 255 264 285 238 201 30 68 197 115 55 -19 2 132 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.5 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 71.3 72.6 73.8 75.0 77.0 78.7 79.9 80.5 80.9 81.6 82.6 84.0 HEAT CONTENT 128 133 122 138 158 147 138 128 131 129 115 76 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 505 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 30. 37. 42. 47. 50. 53. 55. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 13. 19. 30. 40. 49. 54. 59. 59. 59. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.97 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 5.46 Prob of RI= 52.0% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)