* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 47 41 36 31 27 24 22 19 18 V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 47 41 36 31 27 24 22 19 18 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 6 8 11 15 13 22 28 30 27 28 20 SHEAR DIR 232 237 270 296 286 278 265 251 260 256 259 251 264 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 137 135 129 125 124 123 124 125 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 20 21 21 21 25 29 32 24 18 15 19 21 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 1 1 -1 0 -7 5 7 4 9 13 22 850 MB VORT -13 -8 1 -3 0 26 19 1 -9 4 11 4 -5 LAND (KM) 1632 1583 1534 1464 1395 1229 1057 894 743 588 419 266 156 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.4 143.7 145.1 146.5 147.8 149.2 150.8 152.4 153.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 200/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -28. -32. -36. -39. -39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. -41. -42. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.12 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.6% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)