* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 27 23 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 27 23 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 9 6 5 10 12 8 6 4 7 13 6 SHEAR DIR 82 92 112 115 125 115 122 133 124 167 148 194 215 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 126 122 117 114 111 107 105 104 103 102 100 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 500-300 MB RH 46 41 42 39 35 34 24 23 18 22 21 17 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 850 MB VORT 24 18 6 -6 -14 -13 11 10 0 14 15 28 33 LAND (KM) 557 546 545 556 574 664 782 870 948 1042 1141 1213 1259 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.4 20.4 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.8 119.0 119.8 120.6 121.6 122.8 123.8 124.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 541 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -28. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -24. -27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 2.37 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)