* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 47 44 41 36 32 28 27 25 24 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 47 44 41 36 32 28 27 25 24 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 8 12 13 12 11 25 29 28 27 27 15 SHEAR DIR 292 303 319 294 283 289 256 260 269 261 245 250 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 135 132 129 125 124 125 126 126 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 -55.4 -55.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 21 22 26 28 29 35 34 24 19 23 30 38 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 2 0 0 -1 0 1 -6 9 8 22 19 850 MB VORT 8 13 8 16 23 27 15 -7 -14 0 11 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1571 1510 1450 1371 1293 1121 925 729 539 356 213 121 54 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 141.1 141.6 142.1 142.7 143.3 144.7 146.3 148.0 149.7 151.4 152.9 154.3 155.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -27. -29. -31. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -28. -30. -31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 2.64 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)