* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 9 8 9 7 10 8 5 2 9 8 10 SHEAR DIR 95 114 115 120 115 113 104 85 109 133 161 234 179 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 123 120 117 114 112 110 108 107 106 105 104 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 43 44 42 38 33 29 23 21 17 16 16 16 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 850 MB VORT 25 11 -3 -11 -22 -9 5 4 -1 -3 2 -2 14 LAND (KM) 534 527 526 560 597 702 799 902 1020 1113 1181 1252 1327 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.6 116.0 116.5 117.0 118.1 119.0 119.9 120.9 121.9 122.9 123.9 124.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 601 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -20. -22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 93.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.57 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.17 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 2.22 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)