* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 39 49 59 65 72 77 81 83 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 39 49 59 65 72 77 81 47 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 7 11 8 5 10 8 13 9 10 8 6 SHEAR DIR 115 99 105 170 219 303 290 296 300 321 294 296 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 13 14 12 14 11 12 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 68 60 58 62 64 60 61 57 58 57 59 55 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 2 4 2 4 0 850 MB VORT 3 0 5 9 8 -17 -2 -2 30 38 51 51 52 LAND (KM) 256 342 344 285 262 280 322 311 297 245 138 18 -121 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.8 75.1 76.4 77.5 78.6 80.5 82.0 83.1 84.2 85.2 86.2 87.3 88.6 HEAT CONTENT 104 94 76 78 86 131 125 120 112 112 121 94 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 26. 34. 40. 46. 51. 56. 61. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 29. 39. 45. 52. 57. 61. 63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.88 Prob of RI= 32.5% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)