* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 48 46 41 36 30 26 24 22 21 20 V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 48 46 41 36 30 26 24 22 21 20 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 11 10 10 15 22 29 31 28 26 15 15 SHEAR DIR 316 330 315 289 267 260 259 261 262 263 257 267 274 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 133 131 125 123 124 125 126 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 500-300 MB RH 21 26 28 29 33 31 24 21 20 28 32 40 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 -2 0 0 2 5 10 8 4 21 16 -11 850 MB VORT 10 5 -2 8 21 9 8 5 7 15 20 5 -6 LAND (KM) 1527 1449 1372 1274 1177 962 754 544 368 227 172 108 90 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.4 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.2 142.8 143.6 144.3 146.0 147.7 149.6 151.3 152.9 154.2 155.7 157.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -30. -33. -34. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -19. -25. -29. -31. -33. -34. -35. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 2.42 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)