* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 8 9 9 9 4 7 4 1 10 6 11 SHEAR DIR 87 109 119 129 128 131 101 100 206 176 209 242 214 SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 112 111 110 106 104 103 104 103 102 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 38 34 32 29 29 20 21 16 15 14 16 16 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 16 2 -3 -4 -5 16 17 6 3 2 20 6 17 LAND (KM) 526 552 582 622 663 760 850 931 1005 1077 1148 1198 1243 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.7 117.2 117.7 118.1 119.0 119.9 120.6 121.3 122.0 122.9 123.6 124.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 566 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -14. -18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 24.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 2.55 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)