* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 43 54 65 75 82 88 91 94 97 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 43 54 65 75 82 88 91 94 67 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 6 8 5 5 SHEAR DIR 111 112 169 239 286 272 296 275 303 285 322 272 311 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 13 12 13 11 13 10 12 9 11 9 500-300 MB RH 59 58 57 59 60 56 60 58 60 60 62 59 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 16 13 21 26 13 9 7 26 38 48 50 51 57 LAND (KM) 309 380 321 298 310 277 270 278 266 219 135 47 -47 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.1 18.0 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.7 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.8 78.0 79.1 80.1 81.8 83.1 84.0 84.9 85.5 86.3 87.1 88.0 HEAT CONTENT 69 73 76 87 119 123 114 109 102 105 121 111 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 35. 44. 51. 57. 61. 66. 70. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 40. 50. 57. 63. 66. 69. 72. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 5.39 Prob of RI= 49.9% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)