* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 39 34 29 23 19 18 17 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 39 34 29 23 19 18 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 12 14 14 16 26 30 29 26 27 22 20 SHEAR DIR 311 310 289 265 268 260 250 258 273 255 272 283 296 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 132 129 126 122 122 123 123 126 129 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 -55.2 -55.7 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 25 28 28 33 35 36 28 23 27 34 40 36 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 0 0 1 0 18 3 7 0 5 -1 -21 850 MB VORT 7 -2 2 11 3 4 13 10 13 15 8 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1490 1403 1317 1214 1114 913 712 519 368 256 160 143 177 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.3 19.4 20.3 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.7 142.4 143.1 143.9 144.6 146.2 148.0 149.9 151.7 153.7 155.9 158.2 160.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -25. -31. -34. -36. -37. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -21. -27. -31. -32. -33. -34. -37. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.29 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 2.28 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)