* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 58 59 57 53 48 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 58 59 57 53 48 42 SHEAR (KTS) 24 20 18 14 11 15 11 3 2 7 7 9 12 SHEAR DIR 73 74 75 69 52 31 39 58 43 168 244 217 236 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.1 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 161 158 155 148 138 125 118 112 105 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 13 11 10 12 9 8 6 5 4 2 2 500-300 MB RH 62 61 56 58 55 52 51 45 43 42 42 39 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 1 1 3 -2 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 4 850 MB VORT -12 -14 -12 -1 1 15 12 22 10 24 25 47 47 LAND (KM) 113 155 207 258 300 405 491 491 572 614 686 726 757 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.6 20.9 21.6 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.9 104.8 105.8 106.7 108.5 110.5 112.6 114.5 116.2 117.5 118.5 119.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 29. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 31. 27. 22. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 33. 34. 32. 28. 23. 17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 4.20 Prob of RI= 31.3% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)