* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 55 66 76 82 87 88 89 91 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 55 66 76 82 87 88 54 39 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 11 9 11 10 SHEAR DIR 119 193 242 281 285 283 294 294 302 303 303 272 244 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 162 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 14 13 13 11 12 10 11 10 11 500-300 MB RH 57 57 59 59 58 58 55 57 52 54 52 58 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 2 0 4 3 1 2 2 2 0 -3 850 MB VORT 10 16 19 4 -7 0 -1 33 21 37 27 41 47 LAND (KM) 322 257 231 230 275 377 299 258 211 141 14 -58 -16 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.7 19.4 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.0 78.1 79.1 80.0 80.8 82.1 82.9 83.8 84.7 85.7 86.8 88.2 89.7 HEAT CONTENT 79 83 104 137 132 139 134 124 125 108 83 9999 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 515 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 42. 48. 53. 56. 59. 62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 19. 30. 41. 51. 57. 62. 63. 64. 66. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 5.23 Prob of RI= 44.5% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)