* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 36 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 36 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 8 10 17 18 30 33 29 27 19 18 14 SHEAR DIR 332 288 254 265 259 251 252 260 261 265 278 284 319 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 129 127 124 122 123 123 125 128 131 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 500-300 MB RH 25 27 33 33 30 27 22 18 24 28 32 35 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 5 14 27 4 13 15 2 -17 850 MB VORT -4 0 7 -2 -8 -4 5 13 12 10 0 -14 7 LAND (KM) 1451 1352 1253 1145 1038 837 628 447 300 184 116 55 244 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.0 142.8 143.5 144.4 145.2 146.9 148.8 150.6 152.4 154.5 157.0 159.4 161.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 552 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -21. -28. -33. -35. -36. -35. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -20. -27. -31. -33. -33. -32. -32. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 2.37 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)