* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 53 53 49 45 39 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 53 53 49 45 39 35 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 17 9 12 13 11 4 2 11 8 15 9 SHEAR DIR 81 77 83 67 38 31 42 20 339 227 254 223 257 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.4 26.1 25.0 24.2 23.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 162 158 152 141 127 116 107 100 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 10 9 11 10 9 6 4 2 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 63 61 61 57 53 52 48 44 39 35 36 32 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 0 -2 3 8 20 19 19 7 12 26 46 47 59 LAND (KM) 123 170 230 254 310 445 416 509 577 681 784 839 940 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.4 105.4 106.4 107.4 109.5 111.7 113.9 115.9 117.7 119.3 120.6 122.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 708 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 24. 27. 27. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 21. 25. 26. 23. 19. 14. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 28. 28. 24. 20. 14. 10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.10 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 4.09 Prob of RI= 29.1% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)