* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 66 73 79 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 66 73 58 47 48 48 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 10 13 12 13 10 14 12 12 12 13 14 SHEAR DIR 181 239 281 288 281 319 296 322 295 317 254 269 243 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 12 13 11 13 10 12 9 11 500-300 MB RH 58 57 54 55 51 53 53 51 52 53 52 55 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 2 0 2 5 3 1 0 0 1 4 0 850 MB VORT 3 5 3 0 1 -6 17 14 24 12 18 28 36 LAND (KM) 247 227 239 290 361 321 245 202 83 -51 1 83 260 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.5 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 79.1 80.1 81.0 81.8 83.1 84.0 85.1 86.3 87.6 89.2 90.9 92.7 HEAT CONTENT 87 112 138 133 132 129 126 131 116 9999 39 42 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 528 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 26. 34. 40. 46. 49. 53. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 31. 41. 48. 54. 56. 57. 57. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.73 Prob of RI= 26.4% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)