* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 37 32 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 37 32 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 14 21 21 27 29 34 33 35 29 30 32 SHEAR DIR 290 281 263 250 241 244 247 262 259 260 256 259 259 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 124 123 121 123 125 128 131 135 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 500-300 MB RH 27 31 33 32 34 29 26 21 25 33 46 48 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 1 0 6 24 3 13 14 16 0 -13 850 MB VORT 13 6 -5 -6 -3 -8 1 -7 2 -4 -2 -2 10 LAND (KM) 1321 1255 1189 1097 1007 846 672 472 243 56 2 145 129 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.6 19.1 19.3 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.9 143.4 143.9 144.7 145.4 146.8 148.4 150.3 152.5 154.3 155.9 157.5 158.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -26. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -26. -30. -33. -34. -35. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -29. -32. -32. -33. -35. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.06 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 2.20 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)