* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 51 54 54 51 48 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 51 54 54 51 48 44 41 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 12 14 13 11 6 6 5 8 6 7 5 SHEAR DIR 69 75 62 52 52 30 27 4 197 257 185 253 208 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 163 162 158 153 144 137 129 125 122 119 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 12 8 9 7 5 5 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 65 62 61 57 54 52 49 45 42 40 42 34 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 1 -2 850 MB VORT -11 -5 0 9 9 2 7 4 9 1 10 7 17 LAND (KM) 171 218 246 279 332 454 422 485 552 600 612 625 617 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.2 106.1 107.0 107.8 109.7 111.6 113.3 114.6 115.7 116.3 116.7 116.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 29. 29. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 23. 20. 17. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 29. 29. 26. 23. 19. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.26 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 3.84 Prob of RI= 24.7% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)